Monday, October 29, 2012

BREEDERS CUP ENTRIES AND ODDS...2012


Friday, November 2, 2012

Odds and comments by Brad Free. Horses listed in order of handicapper's preference.

Juvenile Sprint
full coverage »

Purse: $500,000 , 6 furlongs

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Super Ninety NineB. BaffertM. GarciaSharp debut, worked super since, good fit in allowance-caliber stake8-5
Merit ManR. Hess, Jr.P.ValenzuelaGood stakes win over track, jockey P. Valenzuela rode first BC race 19842-1
South FloydD. O'NeillR. DominguezContender in race that lost pizzazz when fast fillies went elsewhere4-1
Sweet Shirley MaeW. WardJ. RosarioPosted sharp workouts following gate scratch G1 Frizette Oct. 6 BEL8-1
Ceiling KittyT. DascombeJ. VelazquezLongshot Euro filly owned, bred by Betfair founder Andrew Black12-1
HightailW. LukasR. MaraghEight-start maiden curiously spotted, shortens from route to sprint12-1
HazardousC. O'CallaghanE. MaldonadoEarned $18k first-off-claim win, giving back most of it BC entry fees15-1

Marathon
full coverage »

Purse: $500,000 , 1 3/4 miles

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Worth RepeatingM. MachowskyM. PedrozaBargain $62.5k claim sharp now, won a SA dirt marathon 20114-1
EldaaferD. AlvaradoR. Santana Jr.Won this race 2010 at CD, well-bred gelding going strong age 79-2
Not AbroadM. PetroN. Petro Jr.Romped in Maryland-bred stakes, enters in peak form5-1
AtigunK. McPeekM. SmithBEL shipper dropping from G1, lone 3yo still has upside6-1
JaycitoB. BaffertJ. TalamoIt turns out this N2X-eligible colt has always been over-rated6-1
CommanderT. TaylorM. GutierrezHastings Park shipper with speed, intriguing longshot10-1
GrassyM. JonesG. GomezWill run all day, but will he run on dirt? All 19 starts on turf12-1
Juniper PassT. BellL. DettoriGelded in summer, G2 winner set for best third start back12-1
Fame And GloryA. O'BrienJ. SpencerA stayer in Europe, trying dirt surface for the first time15-1
BalladryE. HartyJ. GrahamLast by a long way final prep, but has run races that fit here20-1
RompK. MulhallJ. RosarioAlways been a cut below this class level, 4-for-53 career20-1
CalidoscopioG. FrankelA. GryderSouth American 9yo makes U.S. debut following four-month layoff30-1
AlmudenaJ. SuarezJ. Valdivia Jr.South American mare earned reputation in Peru, these are tougher30-1
Sense of PurposeD. WeldP. SmullenHas not done a thing in three starts since July 201130-1

Juvenile Fillies Turf
full coverage »

Purse: $1,000,000 , 1 mile

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Sky LanternR. HannonR. HughesG1 win-and-in heroine in Ireland, class of field U.S. debut2-1
WatsdachancesC. BrownJ. CastellanoWon on soft, firm and yielding, crushed BEL G3 last out4-1
Spring VentureM. CasseP. HusbandsThree-for-three vs. dubious WO competition, class test here6-1
Waterway RunR. BeckettL. DettoriG3 winner UK been showing speed 7f, two turns is new8-1
Flashy WaysR. BaltasJ. Talamo$100k BC supplement after clever stakes win SA turf, tough post10-1
Tara From the CapeT. PletcherJ. VelazquezReturns to turf following modest fourth on KEE Polytrack10-1
SustainedD. RomansJ. RosarioRunner-up roughly run BEL G3, improving each start, stuck outside12-1
FlotillaM. DelzanglesC. Lemaire"Live" longshot was compromised by traffic in Longchamp G112-1
Kitten's PointG. MotionR. BejaranoTook the long way home both starts, G3 runner-up KEE20-1
MoonwalkD. RomansC. LaneriePopped $74 KEE win-and-in G3, race appeared to be weak20-1
Summer of FunG. WeaverR. DominguezThird head on wire in blanket-finish G3 at KEE30-1
Oscar PartyW. CatalanoK. DesormeauxFourth head on wire in blanket-finish G3 at KEE30-1
The Gold CheongsamJ. NosedaW. BuickUK shipper won 3 of 7, unestablished vs. top company30-1
Nancy OC. CostiganD. MoranSignificant trouble most recent turf try, eased on dirt in last30-1

Also Eligible:

   
Infanta BrancaA. O'BrienR. MooreSibling to 1998 Derby prospect Lil's Lad, tough to like off Euro form30-1
Moulin de MouginR. MandellaC. NakataniRan to hillside pedigree in maiden win, should stay a mile30-1

Juvenile Fillies
full coverage »

Purse: $2,000,000 , 1 1/16 miles

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
ExecutiveprivilegeB. BaffertR. BejaranoLooked like star going 5-for-5, subsequent works imply vulnerability2-1
Dreaming of JuliaT. PletcherJ. VelazquezWent fast early and slow late in gritty G1 win, now tries two turns5-2
BeholderR. MandellaG. GomezLikely pacesetter from rail, would have been favored Juvenile Sprint7-2
Kauai KatieT. PletcherR. NapravnikUnbeaten NY sprints, rationed speed last, projects for first-over trip4-1
Spring in the AirM. CasseP. HusbandsTop filly on synthetic and turf, conventional dirt whole new world10-1
Broken SpellW. LukasR. MaraghBreeders’ Cup incomplete without Lukas, longshot late-runner15-1
Almost an AngelW. WardJ. RosarioOff board both graded stakes, longshot chance if pace collapses20-1
Renee's QueenE. GuillotC. NakataniRecovered from autumn illness, turf-synth filly working well dirt30-1

Filly & Mare Turf
full coverage »

Purse: $2,000,000 , 1 1/4 miles, turf

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
The FugueJ. GosdenW. BuickHotshot G1 winner in UK targeted this all season, Euros strong here5-2
RidasiynaM. DelzanglesC. LemaireTop-class import from France arrives with outstanding credentials7-2
Marketing MixT. ProctorG. GomezRunner-up Beverly D in summer, aided by “rabbit” winning G1 in fall5-1
NahrainR. VarianL. DettoriNarrow miss this race last year, returned to form BEL "yielding"8-1
ZagoraC. BrownJ. CastellanoBriefly opened up in Flower Bowl, got caught, distance limitations?8-1
I'm A DreamerD. SimcockR. HughesScored summer upset in Beverly D , okay fourth in recent BEL bog10-1
NereidJ. ShirreffsJ. Leparoux2012 was bust for good filly until recent wake-up, runner-up to 'Mix12-1
In LingerieT. PletcherJ. VelazquezFirst try on grass after dominating Spinster on Poly, improving 3yo15-1
Lady of ShamrockJ. SadlerM. SmithFacing older fillies and mares for first time, following 10-week layoff15-1
UpA. O'BrienR. MooreG2-caliber Irish filly tried these in Beverly D, was not good enough20-1
Star BillingJ. ShirreffsV. EspinozaInconsistent filly has run races that fit for minor award here30-1
Stormy LucyF. LucarelliM. PedrozaLongshot nibbler all summer and fall in California, faces tall order30-1

Ladies' Classic
full coverage »

Purse: $2,000,000 , 1 1/8 miles

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Royal DeltaW. MottM. SmithDominated her final prep, legitimate favorite to repeat this race2-1
Awesome FeatherC. BrownJ. Sanchez10-for-10, earned giant speed figure last out in non-graded stake4-1
My Miss AureliaS. AsmussenC. NakataniSix-for-six filly beat Questing with weight break, working super SA9-2
QuestingK. McLaughlinI. OrtizNew York dirt terror missed while conceding 7 lbs., now weight-for-age5-1
Love and PrideT. PletcherJ. VelazquezCircumstances to order SA & BEL, is she really lucky or really good?6-1
Include Me OutR. EllisJ. TalamoQueen of California was compromised by pace, bias her final prep8-1
Grace HallA. DutrowJ. CastellanoCakewalked vs. Hoosier Park creampuffs, good 3yo faces tougher12-1
Class IncludedJ. PenneyR. BazeOne-two 16 starts Emerald Downs & Hastings Park, big work this track20-1

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Odds and comments by Mike Watchmaker. Horses listed in order of handicapper's preference.

Juvenile Turf, Purse: $1 million, 1 mile, turf
full coverage »

 

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
DundonnellR. CharltonJ. DoyleWon a Group 3 two back over the subsequent winner of the Royal Lodge4-1
ArtigianoM. Al ZarooniL. DettoriImproving colt was a good second in the Royal Lodge last time, his best yet5-1
Noble TuneC. BrownR. DominguezShowed a most impressive turn of foot in Pilgrim; won debut on firm turf6-1
George VancouverA. O'BrienR. MooreHit the board in Group 1's in two of his last three; inconsistency is the issue8-1
Balance the BooksC. BrownJ. LeparouxBeyers are light, but he used a big late kick to win graded stakes in last two10-1
GervinhoC. GainesR. BejaranoReally liked his closing kick to win the local prep for this; is not out of this10-1
Fantastic MoonJ. NosedaK. FallonWas favored when fifth in Royal Lodge; previous wins say he can rebound12-1
JohaM. MakerJ. CastellanoNailed by 'Books' two back; flattered that one with his Gr. 1 Poly win at Kee12-1
Know MoreD. O'NeillG. GomezLast two not as good as his stakes winning debut; synth form says he'll turf12-1
Dry SummerJ. MullinsJ. TalamoForget his last; he ran well winning two back at this distance in only turf try15-1
Brown AlmightyT. IceK. DesormeauxHasn't run a bad one yet; faces tougher, but is far from a hopeless longshot20-1
I'm BoundtoscoreT. RankinS. RookUpset winner of the Summer Stakes has also run well each start; deep race20-1
Lines of BattleA. O'BrienR. HughesHis Racing Post Ratings are okay, but his one Group stakes try was lacking20-1
Summit CountyD. RomansC. NakataniWasn't badly beaten in turf stakes in his last two, but that won't cut it here30-1
 

Also Eligible:

    
Rising LegendJ. SadlerJ. RosarioScored in his last two in England; been in weaker races than the other Euros20-1

Filly & Mare Sprint, Purse: $1 million, 7 furlongs
full coverage »

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Groupie DollW. BradleyR. MaraghWas always good, but has dominated in last four with blinkers; hard to stopEven
Turbulent DescentT. PletcherJ. VelazquezGetting back to Cali will have to help; her last two in NY were at best so so7-2
Dust and DiamondsS. AsmussenJ. LeparouxLike top one, she's on a win streak; her Gallant Bloom last out was best yet6-1
Musical RomanceW. KaplanJ. LeyvaWon this race last year; all three of her wins so far this year were in Florida8-1
RumorR. MandellaM. SmithHer overall form is good; facing tougher than she is accustomed to, though15-1
SwitchJ. SadlerG. GomezSecond in this the last two years, but recent races say she's past her prime15-1
Strike the MoonM. TrombettaJ. LezcanoRunner up to Groupie Doll in the TCA, but a distant runner up; overmatched20-1
Teddy's PromiseR. EllisJ. TalamoCan improve second off layoff, but her best efforts were several starts back20-1
Belle of the HallT. AlbertraniI. Ortiz Jr.Got her shot here by beating a filly last time who desperately needs a rest30-1
Great HotA. C. AvilaE. MaldonadoBeen a while since her last win, or since her last stakes-class Beyer Fig30-1

Dirt Mile, Purse: $1 million, 1 mile
full coverage »

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
ShacklefordD. RomansR. DominguezSecond in Kelso off layoff, yet seems below his terrific early season form5-2
EmceeK. McLaughlinA. GarciaOn better part of track in Forego win; first start at distance and two turns3-1
Jersey TownB. TaggJ. CastellanoStrong score in the Kelso; do wonder if he can pair up big efforts like that4-1
Fed BizB. BaffertJ. TalamoDisappointed at Hoosier, but is certainly capable of better; a big threat5-1
Rail TripR. EllisJ. Valdivia Jr.At this point, this old pro might find this distance right in his wheelhouse8-1
John ScottC. GainesV. EspinozaHits hard, but might be a cut below and it appears he prefers synthetics10-1
DelegationM. CasseP. HusbandsBig fig win last time was due to uncontested lead; this will be his dirt debut15-1
TapizarS. AsmussenC. NakataniHas had some good days at SA, but his last was so poor it's hard to ignore15-1
Second CityB. CecilM. GutierrezMain claim to fame is a Derby win at Hastings. Overmatched? Just a little.30-1

Turf Sprint, Purse: $1 million, 6.5 furlongs, turf
full coverage »

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Unbridled's NoteS. AsmussenC. NakataniWon the local prep for this at distance, over course; fig was low, though4-1
California FlagB. KorinerJ. TalamoDownhill specialist won this race over the course in '09; away since April9-2
BridgetownT. PletcherJ. VelazquezGood turf sprinter for a while and back in top form; downhill is the question6-1
Camp VictoryM. MitchellJ. LeparouxDownhilling really isn't his game, but he won a Grade 1 three back and is fit6-1
Corporate JungleC. BrownJ. CastellanoChased Wise Dan in his last two and clearly, there are none like that here10-1
Next QuestionM. TrombettaR. DominguezIn career form, but this is a better group than the one he beat at Woodbine10-1
Great AttackW. WardJ. RosarioOff since May; has done his best work in turf sprints at shorter distances15-1
MizdirectionM. PuypeM. SmithAnother coming off a long layoff, but is 2 for 2 over the course; maybe15-1
StarspangledbannerA. O'BrienJ. O'BrienOne good effort off long layoff is sandwiched by two poor ones; tough read15-1
Chosen MiracleJ. HollendorferM. GarciaRunner up to top one last time out has high early speed, but modest Beyers20-1
Great MillsS. AsmussenR. BejaranoHas been close in a few meaningful races, but his wins come in easier spots20-1
ReneesgotzipP. MillerG. GomezShe's fast, and being 3 for 3 on synthetic, she could turf; not impossible20-1
UpgradeM. NiheiR. MaraghRan okay in his last two turf sprint attempts in NY; others just look better20-1
Tale of a ChampionK. MulhallT. BazeWasn't beaten that far in the local prep, but wasn't up to the task, either30-1
 Also Eligible:    
Global PowerT. AmossP. ValenzuelaSports decent form in listed stakes; this is tougher than what he's used to30-1
Starspangled HeatB. AbramsC. NakataniHas lots of downhill course experience, but in entry-level allowance races30-1

Juvenile, Purse: $2 million, 1 1/16 miles
full coverage »

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Power BrokerB. BaffertR. BejaranoRomped in Gr. 1 prep over track in dirt bow, but with the grain of speed bias2-1
Shanghai BobbyT. PletcherR. NapravnikHas been crushing his opponents in New York and should route; obvious5-2
Title ContenderB. BaffertM. GarciaOnly a maiden winner, but it was a fast score over track with blinkers on5-1
Speak LogisticsE. Plesa Jr.A. SerpaStepping way up, but he did gallop in two starts since getting blinkers on8-1
Capo BastoneJ. SadlerJ. RosarioCompromised by a speed track when third in the Front Runner; intriguing10-1
Dynamic SkyM. CasseL. ContrerasSecond to Joha at Kee last time; this will be his first ever attempt on dirt12-1
FortifyK. McLaughlinR. DominguezWill have to do better than his flat third in the Champagne last time out12-1
MonumentJ. SadlerJ. TalamoComes off clear win at distance over track, but vs. Cal breds in slow time15-1
He's Had EnoughD. O'NeillM. GutierrezHad enough trouble in last, but lacks speed, and is also an unknown on dirt20-1

Turf, Purse: $3 million, 1 1/2 miles, turf
full coverage »

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Point of EntryS. McGaugheyJ. VelazquezWon five straight, the last three Gr. 1's; top U.S. hope ends Euro dominance2-1
St Nicholas AbbeyA. O'BrienJ. O'BrienWon this last year; can forgive Arc flop, but some prior efforts were just okay7-2
SharetaA. FabreC. LemaireAlso found wanting on deep going in Arc; prior form sharp; strong threat5-1
Little MikeD. RomansR. DominguezHis big wins this year all came with easy early leads; he won't get one here12-1
TrailblazerY. IkeeY. TakeSolid second in U.S. debut and added distance helps; stepping up, though12-1
Treasure BeachA. O'BrienJ. SpencerGave top one a run last time on deep footing; firm turf suits top one better12-1
DullahanD. RomansJ. RosarioHas run okay on turf, but has yet to win on it; needs a synthetic BC event15-1
Slim ShadeyS. CallaghanG. GomezWon the local prep for this, but this is just an exponentially tougher race15-1
CogitoD. O'NeillL. DettoriDisappointed in U.S. bow; reports have said he'd be more effective on dirt20-1
Kindergarden KidP. MillerJ. LeparouxNo match for top one two starts back with the better trip; needs softer spot20-1
Turbo CompressorT. PletcherJ. BravoTried rating, and finished second to 'Shadey' last time out; in over his head20-1
OptimizerD. W. LukasJ. CourtImproved dramatically in his last two, but not enough to contend here30-1

Sprint, Purse: $1.5 million, 6 furlongs
full coverage »

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
CoilB. BaffertM. GarciaSolid win in the local prep for this and rarely runs poorly; will be a handful4-1
AmazombieW. SpawrM. SmithWon this last year, but his last was a rare dud; formidable if able to rebound9-2
Capital AccountB. BaffertD. FloresFast closing, narrowly beaten second in the local prep; wants more ground6-1
The Lumber GuyM. HushionJ. VelazquezIf he was uncoupled in the Vosburgh, he'd have paid off at 20-1, not 2-16-1
Fast BulletB. BaffertJ. TalamoObviously talented, but away a year and never ran in a stakes; I don't get it10-1
Jimmy CreedR. MandellaG. GomezThird in the same race the top three come out of; can be in the mix again10-1
Poseidon's WarriorR. Reid Jr.I. Ortiz Jr.A big surprise two back, he didn't run as well last time; jury is out on him12-1
Sum of the PartsT. AmossJ. LeparouxVersatile, and in career form, but needs a big move forward to contend12-1
Smiling TigerJ. BondeR. DominguezThere was a time when he'd be a major threat in this; looks past his prime15-1
GantryR. FaucheuxJ. CastellanoGood in easier races, but he has never been effective at this high a level20-1
TrinnibergS. ParbhooW. MartinezHis stakes wins came with uncontested early leads; no easy leads here20-1
Hamazing DestinyD. W. LukasJ. RosarioGive him credit, he's been punching away for years; he's a Gr. 3 horse now30-1
Justin PhillipS. AsmussenR. BejaranoAt his best on a wet track, which he isn't going to get at SA this time of year30-1
Boxeur des RuesD. O'NeillM. GutierrezNot fast enough or good enough; just doesn't belong in the Breeders' Cup50-1

Mile, Purse: $2 million, 1 mile, turf
full coverage »

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Wise DanC. LoprestiJ. VelazquezHas dominated since switching back to turf three starts ago; tough to beat8-5
ExcelebrationA. O'BrienJ. O'BrienIf not for the mighty Frankel, he'd be on a big win streak; top Euro threat5-2
Moonlight CloudF. HeadT. JarnetCapable Euro filly runs against males regularly, so this is not a new thing5-1
ObviouslyM. MitchellJ. TalamoImpressive how he has blossomed of late; risky to sell this speedball short6-1
Mr. CommonsJ. ShirreffsB. BlancHas ability, but even when he's on his game, his will to win is a question12-1
Animal KingdomH. G. MotionR. BejaranoAn odd spot for the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner; first start since February15-1
JeranimoM. PenderG. GomezPops up with an occasional big effort, but he's generally not good enough15-1
Suggestive BoyR. McAnallyM. SmithWill appreciate the return to turf; must significantly improve his U.S. form20-1
Willcox InnM. StidhamJ. GrahamSoundly beaten second to 'Dan' at Kee; has never been as good as these30-1

Classic, Purse: $5 million, 1 1/4 miles
full coverage »

#HORSETRAINERJOCKEYCOMMENTODDS
Game On DudeB. BaffertR. BejaranoIn top form and loves the track, but is just a little bit shaky at the distance5-2
Ron The GreekW. MottJ. LezcanoWon the Big Cap at distance over track last March, but last outing was dull5-1
Flat OutW. MottJ. RosarioThis isn't at Belmont, his favorite track; beaten chalk in this race last year6-1
Fort LarnedI. WilkesB. HernandezWill forgive his last; his Whitney two back was strong; big rebound threat6-1
Mucho Macho ManK. RitvoM. SmithWas best in defeat in Woodward; not sure if he's quite good enough8-1
Richard's KidD. O'NeillG. GomezCompromised by speed bias last time, added distance helps; dangerous10-1
NoniosJ. HollendorferM. PedrozaGame second to Dude in Awesome Again; this field is very deep, though12-1
To Honor and ServeW. MottJ. VelazquezHas looked top class at various times, but has been too erratic this season12-1
AlphaK. McLaughlinR. DominguezCame up empty in the Pa. Derby; looks to be a cut below these, anyway20-1
Pool PlayM. CasseM. MenaHis two dirt starts were both graded wins; in very tough here, however20-1
Brilliant SpeedT. AlbertraniJ. AlvaradoThird in last year's Belmont, but he's a turf horse, and is off form, too30-1
Handsome MikeD. O'NeillM. GutierrezUpset winner of Pa. Derby, and he would be a much bigger surprise here

No comments: